Heatwaves and Drought in 2026: How Extreme Weather Changed Europe's Potato Market

2025 brought Europe a record potato harvest and a large surplus, and in 2026 the situation reversed. Smaller plantings and extreme summer weather have turned the talk to shortage. Below are the main figures available up to early October 2026.

From surplus to shortage in a year

According to DCA Market Intelligence, the 2025 surplus in the four main countries (Belgium, the Netherlands, France, Germany) was about 3.3 million t. In spring, the quotation for processing potatoes in Belgium fell to EUR 0, and in some cases growers even had to pay to get their potatoes sold. Then came smaller plantings and a hot, dry summer.

Summer: five heatwaves

DCA Market Intelligence says Europe was hit by five heatwaves over the summer. Potato growth slows already at around 22-23 °C, and above 30 °C tuber formation is disrupted. According to NEPG, even irrigated fields showed weaker tuber development than expected. Pests, diseases and premature sprouting in storage are additional risks.

Crop forecasts

NEPG forecasts the ware potato crop in the four countries at about 20.7 million t, which is 25.4% less than last year. Average yield is forecast at 40.5 t/ha, 13.9% below 2025 and 9.4% below the five-year average. By country: Germany about 7.55 million t, France 6.49 million t, Belgium 3.43 million t, the Netherlands 3.23 million t. DCA Market Intelligence puts the combined crop at about 20.8 million t, compared with the record 27.3 million t in 2025.

In France, according to CMB News, the crop could fall by around 23%. Analysts estimate that yields compared with the five-year average are down about 21% in Belgium, 13% in France, 10% in Germany and 7% in the Netherlands. The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) estimates the weather-related loss at about 3.1 million t, worth EUR 405-622 million at the contract prices that applied before the drought.

Poland

Statistics Poland (GUS) estimates the 2026 crop at about 5.9 million t, 15.4% less than in 2025. Average yield is 31.3 t/ha (4.3% less), so most of the drop comes from the smaller area. Southern Poland was hit hardest by drought and heat, with temperatures reaching 40 °C in some regions in June. In the north, excessive rain and the risk of tuber rot were the problem. Starch content ranges from 13% to 18%, and tuber quality is very uneven.

What this means

A smaller supply may support prices, but the effect will depend on real yields, quality and storage. Tubers are smaller and of uneven quality this year, so grading and storage conditions deserve extra attention. We cover price developments in the next article.